The IAUNRC organized a 3-part lecture series titled "Understanding Iran 2023" during the Spring 2023 semester. This series of talks brought in experts in various fields to discuss issues surrounding contemporary politics in Iran. This series was co-sponsored by the Center for the Study of the Middle East, the Center for the Study of Global Change, the Islamic Studies Program, and the Department of Central Eurasian Studies.
"Protests in Iran: Regime on the Brink" with Roya Hakakian
The first of these talks was held on February 20, with Roya Hakakian delivering a lecture titled "Protests in Iran: Regime on the Brink.” She began by discussing her work, including an upcoming miniseries based on her second book as well as the UNESCO documentary she made about children in war. She then began her talk on Mahsa “Jina” Amini and how she became a cause célèbre because, as said “she was a perfect victim:” She was not in Tehran to challenge the authorities as she was merely visiting to see relatives. She was Kurdish, apolitical, and far from the cosmopolitan center. Hakakian noted that her hijab, however, was imperfect.
As a result of the events that occurred following Mahsa’s death, ethnic minorities displayed their solidarity with Kurds. At the protests held around the country, no one was talking about separatism in the beginning. She stated that this sort of solidarity had not happened since 1979. However, this waned with the increasingly vocal sentiment that promoted an independent Kurdistan.
She noted that during the Green Movement, there was a dialogue with authorities: there were no slogans against the Supreme Leader, just against Ahmadinejad, who the protestors viewed as illegitimate. However, she said, the people’s patience has evaporated in the 14 years since, and now it is no longer about dialogue. This time, the only demand the protestors made is for the fall of the Islamic Republic. Roya noted that these protests even reached the more religious cities in Iran. Moreover, protestors set Khomeini’s birthplace on fire, and burned images of Supreme Leader Khamenei and the former head of the IRGC, Qasem Soleimani. She attributed this to the younger generation, as when she lived in Iran, this was unimaginable because people were so scared that such a thing was unthinkable.
Hakakian attributed the global movement to the solidarity of the Iranian diaspora and opposition figures, which led to Iran’s removal from the Commission on the Status of Women in the United Nations. She emphasized that women from across the region should come together to achieve their goals. She believes that this is a turning point for feminism, as prior to this, women’s rights activists would have been accused of Islamophobia if they spoke out against mandatory hijab.
She closed the discussion by noting that democracy around the world is fundamental and social media can play a big role in creating change in countries where free speech is restricted. She concluded her talk by stating that she believes this event is the people’s final straw in reaction to the recalcitrance of the Islamic Republic.
"The Iranian Opposition and the Islamic Republic's Political Future" with Ilan Berman
The second lecture was delivered by Ilan Berman on March 21 titled "The Iranian Opposition and the Islamic Republic's Political Future." Berman began his talk with the frank chat he had with various Iranian opposition groups in Washington, D.C., who stimulated his desire for a book. He continued by talking about the Green Movement and the desire for cosmetic changes in the government in 2009, and how this did not appeal to many sectors of Iranian society at the time, such as the bazaar sellers. He argues that this most recent uprising had a much broader scope and a much larger level of cooperation in Iranian society. He then began to delve into the differences between opposition groups, principally the monarchists and Marxists.
Reflecting on the talks he had with Reza Pahlavi, he notes that the crown prince rejects a heavy-handed approach, rejecting a cult of personality and instead emphasizing a democratic institution. The Mujahidin- e Khalq, on the other hand, is an Islamist Marxist organization that originally worked with Khomeini to overthrow the Shah. Since then, they have been persecuted by the government. They tend to be very militant and serve as a “ready-made” military after the predicted collapse of the Islamic Republic. They are very polarizing in the diaspora and have minimal support in Iran. Another opposition figure, Masih Alinejad, views compulsory hijab as the focal point from which there will be a revolution in Iran. He noted that she started at the grassroots level and has grown in popularity since, but Berman views her as an opposition activist, not an opposition leader. He thinks she will have a voice in Iran in the future but will not be the voice. NIAC is also a strong voice in the diaspora, which focuses on articulating a new constitution for Iran. This is reflective of American ideals, but Berman is not sure of the truth of what they say. Coalition for a Secular Iran is another group, which is based in Europe and is composed of mostly young people. He made a point of comparing the difference within the Iranian diaspora, focusing on the older generation in California, which is more focused on human rights. Finally, he mentioned the Iran Transitional Council, which is focused on resistance through unions and the availability of resources for people who are striking to provide for families.
All these groups talk about human rights, denuclearization, and secularization, but they have been fractured. They used to think that forming a consensus would lead to a lessening in their stature, but because of Mahsa Amini, they have come together to try to fight against the Islamic Republic. Though he does not believe that this uprising is a revolution, he believes that it could lead to it eventually.
He believes there are three possible futures for Iran: a technocratic transfer of power, which would mirror the PRC after the death of Mao, toning down ideology, and emphasizing competence. The second is a partial collapse of the Islamic Republic following the line of John Bolton using the Venezuelan example in which the core gets smaller, and the periphery is mired chaos. The third scenario and the most likely scenario in Berman’s view is that of Russia, in which the deep state brought Putin to power. He believes that the IRGC will take control under a certain set of conditions and “de-ideologize,” which will bring a net benefit to the Pentagon, as it will act more predictably.
Berman concludes that this pattern of protests is very cyclical and the most prudent planning as a policymaker is to prepare for that and build resilience. He gives the example of Google, which refused to support supplying Starlink during the protests, so hundreds of Google engineers have individually given it to Iranian opposition groups. He notes that the lack of connectivity following the government shutdown of the Internet has ultimately been the reason for the end of protests. In response, the Iranian government has created a National Internet, which is completely internal and which he views as Orwellian. He also believes that there ought to be greater capacity building. He uses the example of cryptocurrency in the Russian opposition. Finally, he suggests American policymakers reconceive of what the know about the Iranian opposition by reconfiguring who is worth trusting and those who should be disregarded.
"Class and Geography in Iranian Politics at Home and Abroad" with Rod Sanjabi
The final talk in this series was given on April 12 by Rod Sanjabi titled "Class and Geography in Iranian Politics at Home and Abroad." Sanjabi is a human rights lawyer focusing on Iran and the former Executive Director of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. Sanjabi engaged in lively discussions with faculty members and graduate students from the CEUS and MELC departments about the current state of political relationships between the Iranian clergy, government, and general populace.
Image: IAUNRC Director Dr. Jamsheed Choksy introduces Rod Sanjabi
Students were given the opportunity to have lunch and chat with all of these speakers prior to their talks, which produced very interesting discussions about the topics of the lectures as well as career options for students of the region. Thank you to all of the speakers for the interesting talks and discussions that followed.